Resumo em Inglês:

ABSTRACT This study examines Brazil’s manufacturing industry (2002-2024) through New-Developmentalist Theory. Using a VECM, it shows that real exchange rate appreciation and import penetration are key drivers of manufacturing sector’s decline, amplified by commodity cycles (Dutch disease) and hysteresis. Three major structural breaks are identified: commodity-driven growth (2003-2008), post-2008 decline, and post-2017 stagnation. Findings indicate that exchange rate adjustments alone are insufficient: coordinated industrial, technological, and investment policies are required to restore manufacturing dynamism and strengthen Brazil’s role in the global market. JEL Classification: F43, F63, O14, F41, L60

Resumo em Inglês:

ABSTRACT The term “Dutch disease,” coined by The Economist (1977), describes how a commodity boom can overvalue a currency, undermine industrial competitiveness, and lead to deindustrialization. While traditionally linked to resource booms, an alternative theoretical view, advanced by Palma (2005) and the new developmentalist school, associates it in Latin America with post-1990s liberalizing reforms. This paper empirically tests whether Brazilian premature deindustrialization is driven by Dutch disease, a link not previously modeled within this latter theoretical framework. Using time series econometric models (1999-2024), we first examine whether the real exchange rate is influenced by Dutch disease variables. We then assess whether these factors explain Brazil’s premature deindustrialization, as hypothesized by Palma and new developmentalism. The findings support this interpretation, identifying Dutch disease – shaped by liberalizing reforms – as a key driver of Brazilian industrial decline. The paper closes with policy implications aimed at mitigating the structural impacts of Dutch disease. JEL Classification: O1; O47; O.

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ABSTRACT This article evaluates the relationship between public and private investments at the subnational level. The previous literature on this topic has little emphasized the analysis of regional dynamics, since the IBGE does not provide detailed historical series of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at the local level. To help fill this gap, such relationships are revisited for Brazil, with the use of panel data from a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Model. We built different proxies to capture the private and public dimensions of investments for the 27 Federation Units. The results obtained converge with international and national evidence of the predominance of positive effects of public investments over private ones, which reinforces the perspective suggested in the Keynesian and structuralist literatures. JEL Classification: E22; E32.

Resumo em Inglês:

ABSTRACT One of the main propositions of the new-developmentalist school is the idea the over-valued exchange rates – due to Dutch disease and the adoption of a growth model with foreign savings − hampers economic growth by reducing the manufacturing share in output, i.e. causing a process of deindustrialization and also provoking an unsustainable increase in the current account led by an increase in the manufacturing trade deficit that is not compensated by the increase in exports of primary goods due to their low income elasticity of demand (Bresser-Pereira et al., 2015). The problem with this proposition is its incompatibility with the so-called Kaldor’s paradox, the empirical regularity discovered by Kaldor (1978) and confirmed by the subsequent empirical literature (Boggio and Barbiere, 2016) that a country manufacturing share in world’s manufacturing exports exhibits a negative correlation with the relative unit labour costs, which means that exchange rate devaluations that are able to reduce the relative real wages are associated with a decrease, rather than an increase, of a country manufacturing share in world’s manufacturing exports. The main objective of this paper is to show that using the concept of industrial equilibrium exchange rate of Oreiro et al. (2020) paper in a macro-Schumpeterian model developed by Fagerberg (2007) the Kaldor’s paradox can be explained as the result of an appreciation of industrial equilibrium exchange rate due to a reduction in the level of technological gap. In such a framework an overvaluation of exchange rate – relative to industrial equilibrium – continues to be harmful for economic growth, but appreciation of the industrial equilibrium exchange rate does not have such an effect. JEL Classification: O11; O14; O3; O4.

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ABSTRACT This article investigates, both theoretically and empirically, why exchange rate depreciation did not boost Brazilian manufacturing exports between 2011 and 2024. The assumed hypothesis is that exchange rate effects on manufacturing are asymmetric due to ongoing deindustrialization and reprimarization over recent decades. To test this hypothesis, a dynamic panel data model is estimated using traditional variables, such as the real exchange rate and world income, alongside additional relevant aspects, including the commodity price index and exports disaggregated by technological intensity and resource-based sectors. The main results support the hypothesis, showing that exchange rate depreciation benefited resource-intensive segments but had limited effects on technologically more complex sectors. Therefore, exchange rate policy alone has proved to be insufficient to neutralize the Dutch disease during the period analyzed and, in the absence of complementary industrial and technological policies, tends to reinforce the reprimarization of exports at the expense of higher value-added manufacturing. JEL Classification: O24; L16; Q17.

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ABSTRACT This article reevaluates the two main explanatory approaches to the paradox of plenty: natural resource curse and Dutch disease. It is argued that the neo-institutionalism literature, while relevant for identifying political pathologies and rent capture incentives, operates predominantly at the level of effects rather than causes. The neoclassical model of Dutch disease, in turn, is limited to temporary price shocks. The article contends that Dutch disease, reformulated by New Developmentalism as an endogenous and chronic market coordination failure − anchored in Ricardian rents and multiple exchange rate equilibria − constitutes the structuring mechanism. The article proposes and formalizes a typology of models within the natural resource curse and Dutch disease theories. JEL Classification: F41; O11; O13; O25; P16.

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ABSTRACT This paper aims to advance the empirical understanding of Dutch disease in Colombia by integrating theory, history, and econometrics. It first reviews the main analytical traditions and argues that the canonical Corden-Neary model cannot fully account for Colombia’s long run trajectory, motivating the adoption of a broader heterodox perspective. The empirical contribution is twofold. First, a descriptive historical analysis traces the evolution of coffee and oil booms and their relationship with structural change over the twentieth century. Second, a difference VAR is estimated to examine the short run statistical linkages among the real exchange rate, the industrial share of GDP, and the export shares of coffee and oil. The results indicate that, coffee shocks generate stronger industrial gains than oil; real depreciation temporarily supports manufacturing; industrialization shows strong path dependence; and commodity booms repeatedly induce real appreciation consistent with Colombia’s long run pattern of cyclical overvaluation. JEL Classification: O11; O14; F41; F44; N16.

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ABSTRACT In three articles (1982 and 1984), Max Corden and Peter Neary exhibited the theory of Dutch disease which aroused vast interest across the world until today. The theory about the consequence of a commodity boom is based on neoclassical and partly monetarist grounds. This article reconsiders this theory thoroughly. It is static, formulated in terms of a barter economy, does not integrate money and currencies, refutes anything like a “disease” in the sense of a long-standing handicap of an economy and is not in line with the stylized facts of commodity cycles. It suffers under a set of too restrictive assumptions. An alternative theory is proposed here which uses parts of Corden and Neary’s theory and goes far beyond in order to integrate commodity trade in theories of economic development in resource-rich countries and repercussions on the world economy. It shows that in some – not all – resource-rich countries indeed a long-standing structural deformation can occur that is difficult to cure. JEL Classification: B31; E32; F11; F31; O11; Q02; Q43.

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ABSTRACT This article analyzes the differential treatment provided by Brazil’s pension policy to rural workers, an issue heightened by the recent pension reforms. By evaluating policy performance across coverage, adequacy, equity, and sustainability, the study identifies targeting inefficiencies, untapped potential for more effective poverty alleviation, inequitable redistributive outcomes, and significant sustainability challenges. The analysis also highlights issues in targeting beneficiaries and examines the rationale behind differentiated retirement ages. Building on these findings, the paper presents proposals to improve the pension policy’s design and assesses their expected impacts. JEL Classification: H55; J26; I38; D63.

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ABSTRACT I propose to demonstrate (a) why, intrinsically, collective choices cannot reflect the preferences of all the social groups, and (b) why such choices are necessarily determined by moral and ethical values. From such perspective, I will show how the development of various forms of illiberal capitalism endangers the foundations of democracies and their institutions. In a first part, I will define the main issues of the Social Choice Theories and I will highlight the main contradiction of the individualistic approach. In a second part, I will highlight the historical nature of any social regulation. In a third part, I will design a typology of the different types of regulation. In a fourth part, I will highlight the main characteristics of illiberal capitalism and I will show, from some concrete examples, why the fundamentals of democracy are threatened. JEL Classification: A13; B15; D71