Diversificação agrícola como estratégia de resiliência às secas no Brasil

person Marcos Aurélio Santos da Silva *

conceptualization · formal analysis · methodology · writing - original draft · writing - review and editing

schoolEmbrapa Tabuleiros Costeiros, Aracaju, SE, Brazil

person Fábio Rodrigues de Moura

conceptualization · formal analysis · methodology · writing - original draft · writing - review and editing

schoolUniversidade Federal de Sergipe, Departamento de Economia, São Cristóvão, SE, Brazil

person Márcia Helena Galina Dompieri

conceptualization · formal analysis · methodology · writing - original draft;writing - review · editing

schoolEmbrapa Territorial, Campinas, SP, Brazil

person Jefferson Souza Fraga

conceptualization · formal analysis · methodology · writing - original draft · writing - review and editing

schoolUniversidade Federal de Sergipe, Departamento de Economia, São Cristóvão, SE, Brazil

person Pedro Garcia da Paz Santana

formal analysis · methodolgy · writing - review and editing

schoolUniversidade Federal de Sergipe, Departamento de Economia, São Cristóvão, SE, Brazil

Chief editor:

Edemar Corazza

Edited by:

Daniel Kinpara

person*Corresponding author

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Variable	Description	Items considered for the calculation of the Shannon diversity index	Source: IBGE’s sidra table
divlivestock	Shannon diversity index for livestock inventory	Cattle, buffalo, horses, pigs - total, pigs - breeding stock, goats, sheep, poultry - total, poultry - chickens, quails, and dairy cows.	3939 (IBGE, 2023b) and 94 (IBGE, 2023a)
divvlp	Shannon diversity index for the production value of permanent crops	Avocado, cotton, açaí, olive, banana, rubber, cocoa, coffee, canephora, persimmon, cashew nut, Indian tea, bay coconut, dendê, yerba mate, fig, guava, guarana, orange, lemon, apple, papaya, mango, passion fruit, quince, walnut, palm heart, pear, peach, black pepper, sisal, tangerine, tung, urucum, and grape.	1613 (IBGE, 2023c)
divvlt	Shannon diversity index for the production value of temporary crops	Pineapple, cotton, garlic, peanut, rice, oat, sweet potato, potato, sugarcane, onion, rye, barley, peas, fava bean, bean, tobacco, sunflowers, jute, flax, mallow, castor bean, cassava, watermelon, melon, corn, ramie, soybean, sorghum, tomato, wheat, and triticale.	1612 (IBGE, 2023d)

Variable	Description	Expected sign (γ(τ))	Theoretical rationale
mps3_i,t	Mean annual proportion of municipality’s area with extreme drought in the current period (year t)	Negative	Diversity reduction due to low crop adaptability
mps4_i,t	Mean annual proportion of municipality’s area with exceptional drought in the current period (year t)	More pronounced negative	Severe impact on vulnerable regions
mps3_i,t-1	Mean annual proportion of municipality’s area with extreme drought in the previous period (year t-1)	Moderately negative	Residual effects on agricultural composition
mps4_i,t-1	Mean annual proportion of municipality’s area with exceptional drought in the previous period (year t-1)	Negative	Delayed recovery of diversity

Scale	Statistic⁽¹⁾	Livestock (divlivestock)			Temporary crops (divvlt)			Permanent crops (divvlp)
Scale	Statistic⁽¹⁾	panel	2014	2023	panel	2014	2023	panel	2014	2023
Brazil	Mean	0.49	0.58	0.45	0.27	0.25	0.27	0.20	0.18	0.21
	Maximum	0.87	0.88	0.83	0.63	0.62	0.61	0.69	0.60	0.69
	Median	0.53	0.60	0.49	0.28	0.27	0.28	0.19	0.18	0.20
	CV (%)	37.65	25.81	42.84	47.24	51.28	47.00	81.12	82.19	79.00
Northeast	Mean	0.57	0.58	0.56	0.26	0.25	0.27	0.18	0.18	0.17
	Maximum	0.87	0.87	0.83	0.61	0.58	0.61	0.60	0.60	0.56
	Median	0.60	0.60	0.59	0.27	0.27	0.28	0.18	0.18	0.17
	CV (%)	26.79	25.65	28.01	49.28	51.54	47.50	86.60	81.23	87.28

\begin{aligned} RIF (y_{i, t}^{divvlt}; Q τ (\cdot)) = β_{0} (τ) + β_{1} (τ) y_{i, t - 1}^{divvlt} + γ_{1} (τ) m p s 3_{i, t} + \\ γ_{2} (τ) m p s 4_{i, t} + γ_{3} (τ) m p s 3_{i, t - 1} + γ_{4} (τ) m p s 4_{i, t - 1} + c_{i} + λ_{t} + ϵ_{i, t} \\ RIF (y_{i, t}^{divvlp}; Q τ (\cdot)) = β_{0} (τ) + β_{1} (τ) y_{i, t - 1}^{divvlp} + γ_{1} (τ) m p s 3_{i, t} + \\ γ_{2} (τ) m p s 4_{i, t} + γ_{3} (τ) m p s 3_{i, t - 1} + γ_{4} (τ) m p s 4_{i, t - 1} + c_{i} + λ_{t} + ϵ_{i, t} \\ RIF (y_{i, t}^{divlivestock}; Q τ (\cdot)) = β_{0} (τ) + β_{1} (τ) y_{i, t - 1}^{divlivestock} + \\ γ_{1} (τ) m p s 3_{i, t} + γ_{2} (τ) m p s 4_{i, t} + γ_{3} (τ) m p s 3_{i, t - 1} + \\ γ_{4} (τ) m p s 4_{i, t - 1} + c_{i} + λ_{t} + ϵ_{i, t} \end{aligned}