Serviços modernos, taxa real de câmbio e crescimento econômico

PEREIRA, WALLACE MARCELINO; MISSIO, FABRICIO J.; JAYME JR., FREDERICO GONZAGA

doi:10.1590/0101-31572025-3562

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ARTICLE • Brazil. J. Polit. Econ. 45 (1) • 2025 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572025-3562 linkcopiar

Serviços modernos, taxa real de câmbio e crescimento econômico

Autoria SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

O artigo investiga os efeitos de variações do nível da taxa real de câmbio (RER) sobre o setor de serviços modernos. A hipótese é que a manutenção de uma RER competitiva contribui para melhorar o desempenho desse setor na economia. Para tanto, estimamos modelos econométricos com base no Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) para uma amostra de 24 países entre 2000 e 2014. Os resultados sugerem que a RER afeta positivamente o setor de serviços modernos em termos do produto, do emprego e de um índice de mudança estrutural.

PALAVRAS-CHAVE:
Crescimento; taxa de câmbio real; mudança estrutural; serviços

Description of indicators	Variables	Source
Index of Structural Change in Services	sci _ms	WIOD
International Relative Servitization Index (Employment)	irsi _e	WIOD
International Relative Servitization Index (Gross Domestic Product)	irsi _gdp	WIOD
Real exchange rate weighted by 171 trading partners	rer (171)	Bruegel datasets
Real exchange rate weighted by 66 trading partners	rer (66)	Bruegel datasets
Real exchange rate weighted by 30 trading partners	rer (30)	CEPII
Real exchange rate weighted by 186 trading partners	rer (186)	CEPII
Real exchange rate weighted by 30 alternating trading partners	rer (30a)	CEPII
Real exchange rate weighted by 186 alternating trading partners	rer (186a)	CEPII
Manufacturing productivity (Value Added ratio per employed person - VA/PO)	manup	WIOD
Labour Share	lsh	WIOD
Degree of openness of the economy	open	World Bank data
Population	pop	World Bank data

	(rer171)	(rer66)	(rer30)	(rer30a)	(rer186)	(rer186a)
lnscims [t-1]	0.2311** (0.100)	0.2256** (0.100)	0.3003** (0.132)	0.3005** (0.132)	0.2953** (0.134)	0.3021** (0.138)
rer	-0.0463** (0.020)	-0.0380** (0.015)	-0.0774** (0.036)	-0.0776** (0.036)	-0.0812** (0.039)	-0.0738** (0.037)
manupg [t-1]	1.3401*** (0.484)	1.1899*** (0.398)	1.4298*** (0.507)	1.4298*** (0.507)	1.4879*** (0.548)	1.3984*** (0.529)
lshg [t-1]	-0.5627 (0.988)	-0.7944 (0.924)	-1.1948 (1.071)	-1.1972 (1.071)	-1.2959 (1.067)	-1.3412 (1.069)
openg [t-1]	-1.5365*** (0.563)	-1.4633*** (0.541)	-1.4018* (0.801)	-1.4044* (0.801)	-1.3992* (0.802)	-1.3348* (0.779)
popg [t-1]	0.7182* (0.378)	0.6884** (0.330)	0.3752* (0.225)	0.3744* (0.225)	0.3982* (0.226)	0.4002* (0.224)
Const.	3.0987* (1.764)	2.2970* (1.310)	6.3609* (3.339)	6.3713* (3.344)	6.7543* (3.720)	5.9953* (3.465)
Observations	312	312	312	312	312	312
Instruments	10	10	10	10	10	10
Arellano-Bond test for AR (2) in first difference (p-value)	0.3312	0.4172	0.3823	0.3774	0.3602	0.4520
Hansen test of joint validity of instruments (p-value) ansenp	0.8603	0.8821	0.6399	0.6409	0.6505	0.5862

	(rer171)	(rer66)	(rer30)	(rer30a)	(rer186)	(rer186a)
lnscims [t-1]	0.2668*** (0.091)	0.2616*** (0.090)	0.2102* (0.121)	0.2100* (0.121)	0.2022* (0.112)	0.2089* (0.112)
rer	-0.0422*** (0.016)	-0.0371*** (0.013)	-0.0697** (0.030)	-0.0699** (0.030)	-0.0726** (0.035)	-0.0651** (0.032)
lnscimanu [t-1]	0.0985** (0.048)	0.0891* (0.049)	0.1332*** (0.046)	0.1336*** (0.046)	0.1372*** (0.036)	0.1356*** (0.036)
manupg [t-1]	1.1179* * (0.384)	1.0101*** (0.377)	1.6820** (0.747)	1.6841** (0.748)	2.1177** (0.991)	1.9973** (0.973)
lshg [t-1]	-2.1032*** (0.741)	-2.1054*** (0.749)	-1.4157 (0.951)	-1.4137 (0.951)	-1.4432 (0.976)	-1.4787 (0.941)
openg [t-1]	-0.9610 (0.677)	-1.0001 (0.671)	-2.1107 (1.476)	-2.1144 (1.477)	-2.3441 (1.849)	-1.9790 (1.746)
popg [t-1]	0.4375** (0.215)	0.4070** (0.205)	0.3842* (0.198)	0.3839* (0.198)	0.4149** (0.183)	0.4036**(0.18 7)
Const.	2.8789* (1.578)	2.3612* (1.249)	5.5680* (2.858)	5.5849* (2.869)	5.8598* (3.291)	5.0850* (3.026)
Observations	312	312	312	312	312	312
Instruments	14	14	12	12	12	12
Arellano-Bond test for AR (2) in first difference (p-value)	0.7914	0.8012	0.7543	0.7490	0.6648	0.8245
Hansen test of joint validity of instruments (p-value) hansenp	0.8100	0.8388	0.6900	0.6927	0.6805	0.6522

	(rer171)	(rer66)	(rer30)	(rer30a)	(rer186)	(rer186a)
[t-1]	1.1868*** (0.047)	1.2399*** (0.105)	1.2052*** (0.067)	1.2053*** (0.067)	1.1921*** (0.065)	1.1992*** (0.061)
rer	-0.0026** (0.001)	-0.0031** (0.001)	-0.0022** (0.001)	-0.0022** (0.001)	-0.0024** (0.001)	-0.0022** (0.001)
manupg [t-1]	0.3434*** (0.096)	0.7272*** (0.186)	0.3376** (0.160)	0.3378** (0.160)	0.3478** (0.163)	0.3606** (0.150)
lshg [t-1]	-0.0388 (0.310)	-0.6566 (1.535)	-0.3488 (0.360)	-0.3490 (0.360)	-0.0829 (0.918)	-0.3645 (0.387)
openg [t-1]	-0.3423** (0.144)	-0.5225** (0.220)	-0.2580* (0.143)	-0.2578* (0.144)	-0.2482* (0.145)	-0.2702** (0.123)
popg [t-1]	-0.0004 (0.001)	1.3675 (3.708)	1.5495 (2.450)	1.5585 (2.459)	2.4430 (2.716)	1.7593 (2.232)
Const.	0.2798*** (0.100)	0.2948** (0.129)	0.2302*** (0.087)	0.2302*** (0.087)	0.2546** (0.112)	0.2346** (0.095)
Observations	312	312	312	312	312	312
Instruments	10	10	10	10	10	10
Arellano-Bond test for AR (2) in first difference (p-value)	0.0905	0.6517	0.1028	0.1031	0.1429	0.1035
Hansen test of joint validity of instruments (p-value) hansenp	0.2788	0.8919	0.8049	0.8043	0.7575	0.8256

	(rer171)	(rer66)	(rer30)	(rer30a)	(rer186)	(rer186a)
[t-1]	1.0262*** (0.023)	1.0273*** (0.022)	1.0177*** (0.034)	1.0177*** (0.034)	1.0193*** (0.034)	1.0258*** (0.028)
rer	-0.0021*** (0.001)	-0.0018*** (0.001)	-0.0034** (0.002)	-0.0034** (0.002)	-0.0037** (0.002)	-0.0032** (0.001)
manupg [t-1]	0.1338** (0.054)	0.1571*** (0.059)	0.1236* (0.074)	0.1238* (0.074)	0.1261* (0.073)	0.1250* (0.072)
lshg [t-1]	0.1498 (0.101)	0.1452 (0.102)	0.1711 (0.105)	0.1714 (0.105)	0.1731 (0.106)	0.1767 (0.111)
openg [t-1]	-0.1338*** (0.034)	-0.1487*** (0.038)	-0.1287*** (0.043)	-0.1289*** (0.043)	-0.1284*** (0.042)	-0.1276*** (0.043)
popg [t-1]	0.3491 (0.373)	0.4513 (0.345)	0.2579 (0.515)	0.2580 (0.515)	0.3458 (0.550)	0.3517 (0.521)
Const.	0.2032** (0.079)	0.1734** (0.068)	0.3313** (0.157)	0.3324** (0.158)	0.3564** (0.178)	0.3091** (0.137)
Observations	312	312	312	312	312	312
Instruments	10	10	10	10	10	10
Arellano-Bond test for AR (2) in first difference (p-value)	0.1799	0.1812	0.2723	0.2717	0.2976	0.2551
Hansen test of joint validity of instruments (p-value) hansenp	0.6361	0.6430	0.6969	0.6947	0.6795	0.5375

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[TFN1] Source: Prepared by the authors.

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