An alert on the recent fall of the fiscal reaction in Brazil

Um alerta sobre a recente queda na reação fiscal no Brasil

Recent evaluations of how the Brazilian government’s primary surplus reacts to the evolution of the debt to GDP ratio convey two important (and worrisome) messages: first, the reaction function has been almost steadily decreasing since 2012. Second, it has turned from positive to negative figures as of October 2017. With effective real interest rates (over the net government debt) higher than prospects of GDP growth, negative figures for the fiscal reaction function mean a non-sustainable debt trajectory. Therefore, significant fiscal adjustments are required in the short run.

KEYWORDS:
Brazil; public debt; fiscal reaction; fiscal sustainability; Kalman filter