Determinants of the technological intensity of state exports for the period of rising commodity prices

TEIXEIRA, FELIPE ORSOLIN; CORONEL, DANIEL ARRUDA; OREIRO, JOSÉ LUIS DA COSTA

doi:10.1590/0101-31572021-3029

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Articles • Brazil. J. Polit. Econ. 41 (1) • Jan-Mar 2021 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572021-3029 linkcopy

Determinants of the technological intensity of state exports for the period of rising commodity prices

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

The aim of this paper is to analyze the behavior and determinants of Brazilian states exports, by technological intensity levels, for the period of commodity prices shocks. The results showed that sectors of higher technology lost representativeness in exports and that the real exchange rate can facilitate access for strategic sectors in the international market.

KEYWORDS:
Exports; technological intensity; Brazilian states

Ano	Alta tecnologia	Média-alta tecnologia	Média-baixa tecnologia	Baixa tecnologia	Produtos não industriais	Total
1998	4.4%	25.2%	17.3%	34.6%	18.6%	100.0%
1999	5.8%	25.9%	16.3%	33.6%	18.4%	100.0%
2000	8.0%	23.2%	16.3%	34.9%	17.6%	100.0%
2001	11.9%	23.7%	16.8%	31.0%	16.6%	100.0%
2002	11.4%	21.7%	15.4%	33.4%	18.1%	100.0%
2003	9.3%	21.6%	16.5%	33.4%	19.2%	100.0%
2004	6.5%	23.4%	16.8%	33.5%	19.8%	100.0%
2005	6.4%	23.7%	18.4%	31.8%	19.8%	100.0%
2006	7.0%	25.1%	17.8%	29.5%	20.6%	100.0%
2007	6.4%	24.6%	18.6%	28.2%	22.3%	100.0%
2008	6.0%	23.6%	18.2%	27.9%	24.3%	100.0%
2009	5.4%	21.1%	18.0%	26.4%	29.1%	100.0%
2010	5.5%	18.6%	14.7%	30.1%	31.0%	100.0%
2011	4.2%	18.9%	12.7%	27.6%	36.6%	100.0%
2012	3.3%	17.7%	13.3%	25.0%	40.8%	100.0%
2013	3.8%	17.6%	14.2%	25.5%	38.9%	100.0%
2014	3.7%	17.2%	15.4%	25.7%	38.0%	100.0%
2015	4.0%	16.3%	13.7%	26.7%	39.3%	100.0%
2016	4.8%	17.3%	14.2%	27.9%	35.7%	100.0%
2017	5.3%	18.1%	14.6%	29.2%	32.8%	100.0%
2018	4.6%	18.5%	12.8%	26.5%	37.6%	100.0%

Variáveis	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Ln Total (t-1)	0.679***	0.324	0.525*	1.020***	0.929***	0.808***
	(0.107)	(0.257)	(0.281)	(0.185)	(0.137)	(0.260)
Ln Câmbio_BS	-1.366***	-0.945**	-0.815	-1.051*	-0.432	0.368
	(0.468)	(0.388)	(0.520)	(0.555)	(0.510)	(0.672)
Ln Câmbio_BS (t-1)	0.379	0.831	1.165**	2.053***	1.598***	0.0255
	(0.520)	(0.656)	(0.583)	(0.546)	(0.416)	(0.895)
Ln PIBparc		1.841**	1.308	0.408	0.527*	0.634
		(0.773)	(0.989)	(0.342)	(0.303)	(0.459)
Ln Ipcomm			0.289	0.943**	1.696***	2.657***
			(0.638)	(0.395)	(0.450)	(0.665)
Ln UC				1.153*	1.241**	1.570***
				(0.609)	(0.543)	(0.471)
Ln UC (t-1)				-1.369**	-1.408**	-1.643***
				(0.615)	(0.571)	(0.513)
Ln FBCF					-0.883*	-2.216**
					(0.458)	(0.866)
Ln Juros						0.333**
						(0.145)
Constante	11.24***	-13.41	-12.86**	-13.20***	-13.22***	-7.804**
	(3.078)	(11.36)	(6.346)	(4.331)	(3.346)	(3.606)

Número de instrumentos	11	23	24	29	30	31
AR (2)	0,976	0,510	0,484	0,882	0,920	0,793
Teste de Hansen	0,018	0,101	0,098	0,235	0,284	0,319
Lag dos instrumentos	2	2	2	4	4	4

Variáveis	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Ln Alta Tec (t-1)	0.811***	0.228	0.357***	0.0186	0.0751	0.00860
	(0.207)	(0.217)	(0.123)	(0.159)	(0.148)	(0.147)
Ln Câmbio_BS	-0.114	-0.747	-1.330	-4.116	-1.591	2.700
	(1.372)	(1.637)	(1.735)	(3.274)	(3.476)	(2.809)
Ln Câmbio_BS (t-1)	-0.394	0.617	-1.557	-0.300	-1.784	-8.372**
	(1.346)	(1.921)	(1.692)	(2.755)	(1.998)	(4.193)
Ln PIBparc		2.289	1.793	-2.412	-1.558	-1.971
		(1.580)	(1.223)	(3.376)	(3.228)	(2.742)
Ln Ipcomm			-2.151	-4.590**	-2.702	2.680
			(1.606)	(2.096)	(4.656)	(3.683)
Ln UC				-6.171	-3.657	-0.856
				(5.930)	(5.373)	(5.324)
Ln UC (t-1)				8.889	5.987	3.503
				(5.819)	(5.206)	(5.123)
Ln FBCF					-1.677	-7.311
					(4.310)	(4.570)
Ln Juros						1.595*
						(0.900)
Constante	5.128	-23.59	4.710	62.87	48.41	65.00
	(6.175)	(28.24)	(15.71)	(39.06)	(35.36)	(43.37)

Número de instrumentos	23	21	24	29	30	31
AR (2)	0,292	0,441	0,262	0,686	0,562	0,738
Teste de Hansen	0,311	0,268	0,637	0,244	0,393	0,577
Lag dos instrumentos	3	3	2	4	4	4

Variáveis	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Ln Mealta Tec (t-1)	0.650***	0.463***	0.413**	0.365	0.267	0.274
	(0.250)	(0.170)	(0.169)	(0.242)	(0.256)	(0.270)
Ln Câmbio_BS	-1.948*	-1.830**	-2.195**	-2.905	-0.425	-1.439
	(1.088)	(0.904)	(0.890)	(2.481)	(2.292)	(2.531)
Ln Câmbio_BS (t-1)	1.256**	2.503***	2.076***	1.980**	0.984	1.687
	(0.600)	(0.688)	(0.749)	(0.827)	(0.767)	(2.424)
Ln PIBparc		2.719***	2.951**	0.634	1.105	1.290
		(1.010)	(1.213)	(1.008)	(1.248)	(1.362)
Ln Ipcomm			-0.648	-1.273	2.669	1.757
			(0.965)	(1.658)	(1.905)	(2.281)
Ln UC				4.198*	4.903**	4.306**
				(2.497)	(2.278)	(1.816)
Ln UC (t-1)				-3.259	-3.671	-2.958
				(2.597)	(2.562)	(1.967)
Ln FBCF					-4.455*	-3.837
					(2.485)	(2.912)
Ln Juros						-0.170
						(0.502)
Constante	9.070*	-35.69**	-31.94**	0.279	-9.905	-11.30
	(5.388)	(18.02)	(16.02)	(14.82)	(16.33)	(14.98)
Número de instrumentos	12	23	24	29	30	34
AR (2)	0,258	0,260	0,260	0,325	0,358	0,350
Teste de Hansen	0,105	0,156	0,154	0,355	0,503	0,508
Lag dos instrumentos	2	2	2	4	4	4

Variáveis	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(6)	(7)
Ln Mebaixa Tec (t-1)	0.707***	0.353**	0.395***	0.188	0.367**	0.322
	(0.103)	(0.141)	(0.116)	(0.285)	(0.181)	(0.243)
Ln Câmbio_BS	-0.206	-0.799	0.296	-1.294	-0.466	1.044
	(1.052)	(0.593)	(0.883)	(1.336)	(1.681)	(2.036)
Ln Câmbio_BS (t-1)	0.220	0.692	-0.274	-1.348	-1.128	-4.339
	(0.484)	(0.534)	(0.735)	(1.221)	(1.205)	(3.391)
Ln PIBparc		1.730**	1.627	0.610	0.345	-0.0396
		(0.876)	(1.149)	(1.548)	(1.358)	(1.328)
Ln Ipcomm			-0.518	-2.741*	-0.00432	2.600
			(1.078)	(1.478)	(2.162)	(2.131)
Ln UC				2.925*	4.704**	6.195***
				(1.609)	(2.357)	(1.891)
Ln UC (t-1)				-1.826	-3.599*	-4.863***
				(1.916)	(2.108)	(1.771)
Ln FBCF					-2.624	-5.589*
					(1.785)	(2.919)
Ln Juros						0.859
						(0.672)
Constante	5.435	-14.15	-11.63	17.84	14.81	28.91
	(4.487)	(14.70)	(12.31)	(18.25)	(20.64)	(21.92)

Número de instrumentos	12	21	24	29	30	34
AR (2)	0,721	0,588	0,586	0,554	0,358	0,276
Teste de Hansen	0,231	0,458	0,438	0,433	0,503	0,514
Lag dos instrumentos	2	3	2	4	4	3

Variáveis	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Ln Baixa Tec (t-1)	0.603**	0.172	0.214	0.448	0.724*	0.683**
	(0.295)	(0.269)	(0.424)	(0.332)	(0.385)	(0.323)
Ln Câmbio_BS	-0.703	-0.0351	0.0564	0.0121	0.348	0.172
	(0.544)	(0.716)	(1.040)	(0.743)	(0.751)	(0.474)
Ln Câmbio_BS (t-1)	0.112	-0.140	-0.0847	0.177	0.468	0.398
	(0.528)	(0.993)	(0.715)	(0.414)	(0.850)	(0.664)
Ln PIBparc		1.090	1.012	1.563	0.706	0.253
		(1.180)	(1.487)	(1.749)	(0.599)	(0.957)
Ln Ipcomm			0.111	0.459	1.111*	1.050
			(1.019)	(0.804)	(0.631)	(0.863)
Ln UC				0.255	0.313	0.718
				(0.572)	(0.815)	(1.051)
Ln UC (t-1)				-0.688	-0.457	-0.657
				(1.104)	(0.748)	(0.949)
Ln FBCF					-0.633	-0.761
					(0.941)	(1.196)
Ln Juros						-0.000211
						(0.198)
Constante	10.40*	0.302	-0.460	-11.37	-9.301	-1.689
	(5.939)	(17.44)	(10.69)	(21.31)	(10.99)	(16.95)

Número de instrumentos	12	23	24	35	33	31
AR (2)	0,639	0,968	0,990	0,866	0,803	0,821
Teste de Hansen	0,046	0,161	0,171	0,906	0,647	0,498
Lag dos instrumentos	2	2	2	2	3	4

Variáveis	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(7)
Ln Não Ind (t-1)	0.929***	0.080	0.177	0.574***	0.572***	0.559***

	(0.0887)	(0.171)	(0.219)	(0.170)	(0.174)	(0.179)
Ln Câmbio_BS	-0.628*	-0.195	0,041	-0.0723	0,626	0.613
	(0.378)	(0.260)	(0.494)	(0.750)	(1.098)	(0.862)
Ln Câmbio_BS (t-1)	0.446	-0,570	-0.300	0.636*	0.527	-0.478
	(0.425)	(0.387)	(0.522)	(0.358)	(0.388)	(0.969)
Ln PIBparc.		2.687***	2,188***	1.660	2,518**	1.648
		(0,333)	(0,622)	(1.127)	(1,287)	(1.280)
Ln Ipcomm			0.347	0.390	1,482	1.227
			(0.415)	(0.618)	(1.754)	(1.095)
Ln UC				-0.932	0,238	-0.228
				(0.874)	(1,624)	(0.846)
Ln UC (t-1)				0.873	-0.724	0.218
				(1.047)	(1,073)	(1.007)
Ln FBCF					-0,580	-1.001
					(2,025)	(1.409)
Ln Juros						0.230
						(0.201)
Constante	2.283	-19.93***	-17,95***	-20.76	-34,38***	-17.98
	(2.909)	(3,53)	(5,51)	(13.49)	(13,12)	(15.18)

Número de instrumentos	12	14	15	35	36	37
AR (2)	0,169	0,223	0,238	0,200	0,200	0,205
Teste de Hansen	0,021	0,660	0,649	0,677	0,618	0,754
Lag dos instrumentos	2	6	6	2	2	2

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[TFN1] Fonte: Elaboração própria, com base nos dados do Comex Stat.