The Brazilian ‘secular stagnation’: Its causes and an agenda to overcome it

FERRARI FILHO, FERNANDO; TERRA, FABIO

doi:10.1590/0101-31572023-3492

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Articles • Brazil. J. Polit. Econ. 43 (1) • Jan-Mar 2023 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572023-3492 linkcopy

The Brazilian ‘secular stagnation’: Its causes and an agenda to overcome it

A “estagnação secular” brasileira: Suas causas e uma agenda para superá-la

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

The article has two goals. First, it describes and analyses the reasons for the Brazilian ‘secular stagnation’ between 2015 and 2021. Second, it outlines an agenda to assure the Brazilian macroeconomic stability and social development, defined as sustainable economic growth, inflation under control, fiscal and external equilibria and income distribution.

KEYWORDS:
‘Secular stagnation’; Brazilian economy; Keynesian and Institutionalist approaches

Year	GDP Growth Rate (%)	Unemployment Rate (%)	Inflation rate (%)	Primary Fiscal Result/GDP (%)	Nominal Fiscal Deficit/GDP	Basic Interest Rate, end of period (%)	Trade Balance (US$ Billion)	Risk Country (EMBI, %)	Average Exchange Rate, end of Period (R$/US$)
2010	7.6	6.7	5.91	2.7	2.6	10.75	20.2	189	1.67
2011	4.0	6.0	6.5	3.1	2.6	11.0	29.8	223	1.87
2012	1.9	5.5	5.84	2.4	2.4	7.25	19.4	142	2.05
2013	3.0	5.4	5.91	1.9	1.4	10.0	2.6	224	2.36
2014	0.5	4.8	6.41	- 0.6	- 6.7	11.75	- 3.9	260	2.65
2015	- 3.5	6.8	10.67	- 1.9	- 9.1	14.25	19.6	523	3.95
2016	- 3.3	11.5	6.29	- 2.5	- 9.0	13.75	47.7	328	3.26
2017	1.3	12.7	2.95	- 1.7	- 7.8	7.0	67.0	240	3.31
2018	1.3	12.3	3.75	- 1.6	- 7.1	6.5	58.3	276	3.88
2019	1.1	11.9	4.31	- 1.2	- 4.3	4.5	46.7	214	4.02
2020	- 4.1	13.5	4.52	- 9.5	- 4.2	2.0	50.9	260	5.19
2021	4.0*	12.6	10.06	0.75	-4.42	9.25	61.0	326	5.39

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E-mail: bjpe@fgv.br

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[TFN1] Source: IPEADATA (2021) and IBGE (2021).

[TFN2] Note: * It is estimated by the FOCUS Report (CBB, 2022).