Regimes de crescimento nos países centrais e periféricos: uma análise econométrica, 1980-2018

LOPEZ, EMILIANO; NOGUERA, DEBORAH

doi:10.1590/0101-31572023-3423

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Articles • Brazil. J. Polit. Econ. 43 (3) • Jul-Sep 2023 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572023-3423 linkcopiar

Regimes de crescimento nos países centrais e periféricos: uma análise econométrica, 1980-2018

Autoria SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Exploramos diferenças estruturais nos padrões de crescimento e distribuição de renda entre países centrais e periféricos. Fornecemos dimensões que dão conta das limitações estruturais que as posições dependentes têm nas periferias e semiperiferias. Realizamos uma análise por meio de diferentes estimativas de modelos de dados em painel para 35 países centrais e periféricos para o período 1980-2018. Em particular, além de fazer as estimativas usuais dos componentes da demanda agregada, incluímos três variáveis que consideramos representativas da dinâmica que a acumulação de capital assume na periferia: a participação nas cadeias globais de valor, os níveis de estrangeirização das economias e a produtividade do trabalho diferenciais.

PALAVRAS-CHAVE:
Regimes de crescimento; distribuição de renda; dependência; modelos de painel

Variable		Source	Unit
Y	GDP at market prices	WDI and FMI	USD 2011
C	Households and NPISHs Final consumption expenditure	WDI and FMI	USD 2011
I	Gross fixed capital formation	WDI and FMI	USD 2011
X	Exports of goods and services	WDI and COMTRADE	USD 2011
M	Imports of goods and services	WDI and COMTRADE	USD 2011
Y*	GDP of the 10 countries with the highest imports. Average ranking	WDI and FMI	USD 2011
WS	Adjusted wage share, total economy	AMECO, PWT 9.1 and National Accounts	% GDP
RER	Real effective exchange rate	BIS - AMECO	2010=100
r	Real interest effective rate	AMECO, OECD (MEI), BIS and Central Banks	%
DH	Households and NPISHs debt, all liabilities	BIS	% GDP
GF	Financial globalization	BIS and National Accounts	% GDP
EX	Foreignization	PWT 9.1 and UNCTAD	% capital stock
RULC	Relative unit labor costs	OIT and PWT 9.1	Regarding USA
EXPO	Ratio domestic value-added in agricultural exports to domestic value added in industrial exports	TiVA-OECD and COMTRADE	Ratio

	Panel			Center			Periphery and semi-periphery
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)
	FD	GMM	A&H	FD	GMM	A&H	FD	GMM	A&H
lnC_t-1		0.761***	0.743***		0.777***	0.716***		0.790***	0.656***
		(0.059)	(0.055)		(0.060)	(0.083)		(0.054)	(0.088)
lnY	0.731***	0.581***	0.501***	0.721***	0.541***	0.556**	0.844***	0.601***	0.599***
	(0.016)	(0.068)	(0.059)	(0.028)	(0.063)	(0.110)	(0.019)	(0.064)	(0.098)
lnWS	0.116**	0.132**	0.098*	0.171***	0.193**	0.126*	0.086**	0.080**	0.076**
	(0.014)	(0.042)	(0.041)	(0.032)	(0.061)	(0.063)	(0.012)	(0.037)	(0.051)
lnGF	-0.017***	-0.036***	-0.015*	-0.007**	-0.021***	-0.016*	-0.025***	-0.039**	-0.053
	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.015)	(0.036)
lnDH	0.095**	0.017**	0.012	0.126***	0.096**	0.091*	0.036	0.028	0.012
	(0.091)	(0.126)	(0.031)	(0.091)	(0.032)	(0.063)	(0.096)	(0.098)	(0.089)
lnEX	0.018**	0.014**	0.013*	0.009**	0.007**	0.016**	-0.015**	-0.011*	-0.090
	(0.008)	(0.012)	(0.016)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.015)	(0.006)	(0.009)	(0.072)
Observations	1,360	1,360	1,360	741	741	741	619	619	619
R-squared	0.899			0.796			0.778
Number of id		35	35		19	19		16	16
Sargan p-value		0.106	0.103		0.098	0.091		0.096	0.090
Hansen p-value		0.133	0.121		0.109	0.106		0.101	0.097
AR (2) p-value		0.496			0.493			0.401

Investment
	Panel			Center			Periphery and semi-periphery
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)
	FD	GMM	A&H	FD	GMM	A&H	FD	GMM	A&H
lnI_t-1		0.866***	0.892***		0.829***	0.876***		0.889***	0.791*
		(0.023)	(0.057)		(0.036)	(0.059)		(0.062)	(0.101)
lnY	1.991***	1.969***	2.041***	1.872***	1.998***	2.020***	1.983***	2.057***	2.051**
	(0.176)	(0.192)	(0.116)	(0.118)	(0.148)	(0.214)	(0.101)	(0.173)	(0.142)
lnWS	-0.135***	-0.126**	-0.150**	-0.048**	-0.073***	-0.041*	-0.188***	-0.189**	-0.192**
	(0.064)	(0.032)	(0.059)	(0.016)	(0.023)	(0.015)	(0.073)	(0.041)	(0.043)
r	-0.185**	-0.123**	-0.112*	-0.308***	-0.213**	-0.206*	-0.086**	-0.081*	0.077
	(0.051)	(0.059)	(0.063)	(0.098)	(0.086)	(0.079)	(0.046)	(0.039)	(0.041)
lnGF	-0.216**	-0.150**	-0.132*	-0.153***	-0.131***	-0.128	-0.231***	-0.193*	-0.281*
	(0.051)	(0.029)	(0.026)	(0.089)	(0.016)	(0.061)	(0.071)	(0.066)	(0.142)
lnEX	-0.026**	-0.013**	-0.012*	-0.006*	-0.002	0.057	-0.133***	-0.101**	0.178*
	(0.016)	(0.011)	(0.012)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.068)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.136)
Observations	1,301	1,301	1,301	703	703	703	598	598	598
R-squared	0.894			0.691			0.663
Number of id		35	35		19	19		16	16
Sargan p-value		0.331	0.279		0.297	0.209		0.203	0.111
Hansen p-value		0.312	0.261		0.241	0.201		0.211	0.119
AR (2) p-value		0.626			0.412			0.351

Exports
	Panel			Center			Periphery and semi-periphery
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)
	FD	GMM	A&H	FD	GMM	A&H	FD	GMM	A&H
lnX_t-1		0.929***	0.916***		0.842***	0.831***		0.928***	0.890**
		(0.132)	(0.101)		(0.106)	(0.116)		(0.099)	(0.114)
lnY*	1.531***	1.691***	1.706***	1.791***	2.091***	1.854**	1.571***	2.003***	1.321**
	(0.119)	(0.142)	(0.151)	(0.115)	(0.203)	(0.239)	(0.126)	(0.187)	(0.198)
lnWS	-0.058**	-0.079***	-0.099	-0.033*	-0.051*	-0.076	-0.081**	-0.092**	-0.109
	(0.019)	(0.042)	(0.051)	(0.017)	(0.029)	(0.061)	(0.041)	(0.053)	(0.106)
lnRER	-0.088**	-0.121**	-0.139**	-0.131***	-0.199***	-0.131	-0.049**	-0.029**	-0.012
	(0.026)	(0.069)	(0.096)	(0.052)	(0.066)	(0.105)	(0.028)	(0.016)	(0.011)
lnGF	-0.041**	-0.052**	0.058*	-0.016**	-0.026**	-0.015	-0.036**	-0.038**	-0.097
	(0.016)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.011)	(0.017)	(0.013)	(0.021)	(0.016)	(0.068)
lnEX	0.029*	-0.053	-0.028	0.009	0.006	-0.016	0.097**	0.099**	0.083
	(0.018)	(0.019)	(0.016)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.013)	(0.039)	(0.055)	(0.067)
lnRULC	-0.098**	-0.064*	-0.100	-0.044*	-0.036	-0.038	-0.088**	0.067**	0.059**
	(0.043)	(0.033)	(0.081)	(0.036)	(0.031)	(0.027)	(0.044)	(0.026)	(0.042)
lnEXPO	0.285***	0.193***	0.096	0.186***	0.171***	0.169	0.316***	0.221***	0.249*
	(0.127)	(0.109)	(0.091)	(0.117)	(0.107)	(0.128)	(0.291)	(0.106)	(0.196)
Observations	1,321	1,321	1,321	745	745	745	576	576	576
R-squared	0.786			0.771			0.693
Number of id		34	34		19	19		15	15
Sargan p-value		0.291	0.219		0.171	0.148		0.098	0.089
Hansen p-value		0.319	0.299		0.197	0.192		0.108	0.107
AR (2) p-value		0.172			0.140			0.136

Imports
	Panel			Center			Periphery and semi-periphery
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)
	FD	GMM	A&H	FD	GMM	A&H	FD	GMM	A&H
lnM_t-1		0.696***	0.687***		0.519***	0.521**		0.526***	0.618**
		(0.129)	(0.188)		(0.138)	(0.191)		(0.103)	(0.189)
lnY	1.421***	1.462***	1.398**	1.283***	1.276***	1.142**	1.531***	1.479***	1.387**
	(0.123)	(0.129)	(0.201)	(0.074)	(0.101)	(0.266)	(0.144)	(0.101)	(0.222)
lnWS	0.066**	0.083*	0.081	0.033**	0.049*	0.043	0.097**	0.099**	0.112*
	(0.045)	(0.041)	(0.059)	(0.017)	(0.027)	(0.019)	(0.031)	(0.091)	(0.109)
lnRER	0.078***	0.069**	0.083	0.091**	0.077**	-0.070*	0.040***	0.038*	0.051
	(0.033)	(0.066)	(0.071)	(0.032)	(0.069)	(0.063)	(0.029)	(0.028)	(0.042)
lnGF	0.139***	0.083**	0.089	0.031**	0.017**	0.020	0.159***	0.133*	0.126**
	(0.063)	(0.051)	(0.079)	(0.012)	(0.015)	(0.019)	(0.099)	(0.118)	(0.101)
lnEX	0.215**	0.206**	0.212**	0.116*	0.103**	0.103	0.329**	0.317***	0.323**
	(0.101)	(0.104)	(0.101)	(0.071)	(0.096)	(0.077)	(0.097)	(0.081)	(0.116)
lnRULC	0.091*	0.076*	0.071	0.039*	0.051	0.069	0.088*	0.081*	0.096
	(0.081)	(0.043)	(0.069)	(0.031)	(0.043)	(0.067)	(0.077)	(0.069)	(0.091)
lnEXPO	0.326***	0.314***	0.269**	0.139***	0.121**	0.136**	0.346***	0.363***	0.301**
	(0.106)	(0.103)	(0.128)	(0.118)	(0.102)	(0.117)	(0.109)	(0.191)	(0.116)
Observations	1,321	1,321	1,321	745	745	745	576	576	576
R-squared	0.823			0.813			0.745
Number of id		34	34		19	19		15	15
Sargan p-value		0.099	0.086		0.073	0.058		0.061	0.042
Hansen p-value		0.088	0.073		0.068	0.070		0.065	0.059
AR (2) p-value		0.149			0.139			0.121

	Panel	Center	Periphery	Semi-periphery
C	0.106	0.158	0.104	0.054
I	-0.049	-0.016	-0.071	-0.102
X+M	-0.039	-0.020	-0.057	-0.076
Y	0.018	0.122	-0.024	-0.123
Financialization	274%	352%	107%	121%
Foreignization	8%	9%	6%	2%
RULC	13%	26%	8%	12%
VAag/VAind	10%	5%	24%	4%

		Change 2010-2018	Panel	Center	Periphery	Semi-periphery
Aggregate	1	ΔC	26%	14%	30%	52%
	2	ΔI	27%	13%	5%	35%
		Δ(X-M)	-29%	-51%	-13%	-7%
	3	ΔY	26%	17%	29%	45%
Consumption	4	ΔC-β_YΔY	7%	1%	6%	14%
	5	β_wsΔWS	-0.2%	0.2%	-0.5%	-0.1%
	6	β_EXΔEX	0.9%	0.1%	-1.6%	-0.6%
	7	β_FΔF	3.7%	3.1%	-0.2%	-0.9%
Investment	8	ΔI-β_YΔY-βrΔr	-25%	-20%	-52%	-54%
	9	β_wsΔWS	0.2%	-0.1%	1.0%	0.1%
	10	β_EXΔEX	-1.3%	0.0%	-14.1%	-5.4%
	11	β_GFΔGF	-4.3%	-3.6%	-2.2%	-8.6%
Expo-Imp	12	β_YΔY-β_YΔY	2.9%	6.4%	0.2%	1.4%
	13	β_wsΔWS	0.2%	-0.1%	1.0%	0.1%
	14	β_DCΔDC	-13%	0%	-29%	-11%
	15	β_GFΔGF	-3.6%	-1.1%	-1.9%	-7.2%
GDP	16	β_wsΔWS	0.2%	0.1%	1.5%	0.2%
	17	β_DCΔDC	-13.6%	0.3%	-44.9%	-17.3%
	18	β_FΔF	-4.2%	-1.6%	-4.4%	-16.7%

Variable	N	Mean	SD	Min	Max	Unit
Y	1365	1005.99	2142.31	4.69	17856.48	Billions (USD)
C	1365	581.19	1359.78	2.39	12388.55	Billions (USD)
I	1365	282.62	791.74	0.67	12388.55	Billions (USD)
X	1365	213.69	346.55	0.46	2626.65	Billions (USD)
M	1365	209.77	374.07	1.26	3203.78	Billions (USD)
Y*	1365	35190.46	16933.20	17379.22	82709.21	Billions (USD)
WS	1365	0.57	0.09	0.31	0.76	%GDP
r	1301	0.27	3.42	-0.98	93.94	%
DH	1360	91.76	63.34	10.51	347.48	%GDP
RER	1361	101.50	78.94	12.41	512.90	2010=100
GF	1365	2.66	3.91	0.16	33.06	%GDP
EX	1365	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.86	% capital stock
EXPO	1321	0.11	0.09	0.01	0.39	Ratio
RULC	1363	0.13	0.12	0.02	1.13	According to USA

Variable	Im, Pesaran and Shin¹		Fisher ADF²		Fisher Phillips and Perron³		>I(d)
Variable	no trend	trend	no trend	trend	no trend	trend	>I(d)
Y	1.0000	0.6693	1.0000	0.3585	1.0000	0.9584	I(1)
WS	0.7885	0.5955	0.4857	0.4858	0.6258	0.6125	I(1)
Y*	0.6325	1.0000	0.8965	1.0000	0.9325	1.0000	I(1)
C	1.0000	0.2854	1.0000	0.2587	1.0000	1.0000	I(1)
I	1.0000	0.8172	0.9999	0.1125	1.0000	0.8752	I(1)
X	0.9991	0.9658	0.9999	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	I(1)
M	1.0000	0.2158	1.0000	0.1115	1.0000	0.1984	I(1)
RER	0.0000	0.0021	0.0000	0.0006	0.0000	0.0761	I(0)
r	0.0000	0.0000	0.0003	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	I(0)
RULC	0.9586	0.9589	0.9586	0.9548	0.9518	0.9651	I(1)
EX	0.4586	0.9436	0.8651	0.9961	0.6351	0.9993	I(1)
EXPO	0.5358	0.6151	0.6583	0.9932	0.8591	1.0000	I(1)
GF	0.1412	0.1506	0.2731	0.9542	0.1452	0.6702	I(1)
DH	0.3521	0.1358	0.5326	0.4891	0.6531	0.8641	I(1)
ΔY	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	I(0)
ΔWS	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	I(0)
ΔY*	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	I(0)
ΔC	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	I(0)
ΔI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	I(0)
ΔX	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	I(0)
ΔM	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	I(0)
ΔRER	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	I(0)
Δr	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	I(0)
ΔRULC	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	I(0)
ΔEX	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	I(0)
ΔEXPO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	I(0)
ΔGF	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	I(0)
ΔDH	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	I(0)

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[TFN1] Notes: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation robust standard errors in parentheses.

[TFN2] FD refers to the first difference estimator, GMM to the Arellano and Bond (1991) estimator and A&H is the Anderson and Hsiao (1981, 1982) estimator. Sargan and Hansen are two tests for overidentification and AR (2) is the autocorrelation Arellano and Bond (1991) test. Estimates run using STATA 15.