El turismo en el escenario del cambio climático: impactos, posibilidades y desafíos

Grimm, Isabel Jurema; Alcântara, Liliane C. S.; Sampaio, Carlos Alberto Cioce

doi:10.7784/rbtur.v12i3.1354

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Paper • Rev. Bras. Pesq. Tur. 12 (03) • Sep-Dec 2018 • https://doi.org/10.7784/rbtur.v12i3.1354 linkcopiar

El turismo en el escenario del cambio climático: impactos, posibilidades y desafíos

Autoría SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

El turismo puede ser considerado un sector económico altamente sensible al cambio climático y ha contribuido a la emisión de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI), una de las causas del calentamiento global. Para mitigar sus impactos negativos, surge la concepción del desarrollo del turismo desde el punto de vista de la sostenibilidad, que debe incorporar las externalidades derivadas del cambio climático. Delante de esta realidad, este artículo analiza los impactos, oportunidades y desafíos para el desarrollo sostenible del turismo, a partir de los escenarios proyectados por el cambio climático global. La metodología tiene un enfoque interdisciplinario y sistémico, de carácter descriptivo/analítico, realizado a partir de investigación bibliometrica, documental y entrevistas junto a los especialistas en la temática del turismo, desarrollo y cambios climáticos. Como resultados se tiene la construcción de escenarios prospectivos que muestran posibles impactos y consecuencias de los cambios climáticos al sistema turístico internacional, constituyéndose en informaciones para fines de mitigación, de planificación de acciones de adaptación y de minimización de estos impactos y vulnerabilidades.

Palabras clave:
Impactos Climáticos; Turismo; Adaptación; Mitigación.

Autoría

person Isabel Jurema Grimm

schoolInstituto Superior de Administração e Economia do Mercosul (ISAE), Curitiba, PR, Brasil. Instituto Superior de Administração e Economia do MercosulBrasilCuritiba, PR, BrasilInstituto Superior de Administração e Economia do Mercosul (ISAE), Curitiba, PR, Brasil.

0000-0003-0211-8048

person Liliane C. S. Alcântara

schoolUniversidade Federal do Mato Grosso (UFMT), Cuiabá, MT, Brasil. Universidade Federal do Mato GrossoBrasilCuiabá, MT, BrasilUniversidade Federal do Mato Grosso (UFMT), Cuiabá, MT, Brasil.

0000-0001-8502-720X

person Carlos Alberto Cioce Sampaio

schoolFundação Universidade Regional de Blumenau (FURB), Blumenau, SC, Brasil. Fundação Universidade Regional de BlumenauBrazilBlumenau, SC, BrazilFundação Universidade Regional de Blumenau (FURB), Blumenau, SC, Brasil.

0000-0002-0664-0266

Isabel Jurema Grimm

Post-doctoral degree in Eco-socio-economics by the Graduate Program in Urban Management - PPG-TU/PUCPR. PhD in Environment and Development, by UFPR (2016). Master’s degree in Regional Development by FURB (Blumenau - 2010). Graduated in Tourism from the UNIOESTE Western Paraná State University (Foz do Iguaçu - 1989). Specialist in Administration of the Development of Tourist Activity in Receptive Centers by USP - São Paulo (1991) and Specialist in Didactics and Teaching Methodology by UNOPAR (Londrina - 1998). Hotel Management Course in Mallorca - Spain (1998). Worked at the Tourism Department of Foz do Iguaçu (Parana State) at the department of projects and research. With lectures in the Tourism program at the Federal University of Parana State (UFPR), and occupied a senior lecturer position at FAMEC - Metropolitan College of Curitiba and at the Santa Amelia college in Ponta Grossa. Integrated the Tourism Department of Pomerode city hall (Santa Catarina State). Worked as a Researcher at the Research Center (NECOS) of UFPR/PR and CEPES/ISAE. Post-doctoral student of the PPG program in Urban Management at the Pontifical Catholic University of Paraná (PUCPR), together with the research project: Urban Eco-socio-economics and socio-productive arrangements, and community self-management for sustainable territorial development. Coordinator of the Post-graduate Program in Governance and Sustainability at the ISAE Higher Institute of Administration and Economics (FGV - Getulio Vargas Foundation). Also working with the lines of research in Territorial Development, Cooperatives, Eco-socio-economics, Tourism, and Sustainability. Email: isabelgrimm@gmail.com

Liliane Cristine Schlemer Alcântara

Post-doctoral degree in Eco-socio-economics and Good Living (Buen Vivir)/Graduate Program in Urban Management/Pontifical Catholic University of Paraná, PUCPR, Brazil. PhD in Regional Development/Regional University of Blumenau (FURB, Brazil) with Doctoral Sandwich Program at the Institute of Cooperative Studies/Mondragon University, Spain. Certificate in: Support Program for Teaching and Scientific and Technological Research in Vocational Education Integrated to Youth and Adult Education/Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Mato Grosso, IFMT, Brazil. Rural Management/University Federal of Lavras, UFLA, Brazil and Methodology and Didactics of Higher Education/Faculty of Education, Sciences and Languages of Urubupungá, FECLU, Brazil. Bachelor in Business Administration/Educational Society Três de Maio, Brazil. Research topics: Regional Development, Sustainable Territorial Development, Eco-education, Cooperative Education, Eco-socio-economics, Good Living. Researcher of study groups: Public politics (FURB), Environmental analysis and eco-development (FURB), Resilience and family farming in the Amazon/UNEMAT, Brazil and Eco-socio-economics/UFPR, Brazil. Professor of Management and Accounting/Federal University of Mato Grosso, UFMT, Brazil. She is a professor of the Graduate Program in Environmental Sciences/ Mato Grosso State University, UNEMAT, Brazil. Email: isabelgrimm@gmail.com

Carlos Alberto Cioce Sampaio

Administrator/PUCSP, Master’s degree and PhD in planning and organizational management for sustainable development/UFSC. Post-doctoral fellowship in Eco-socio-economics/UACH, Corporate Cooperativism/U.Mondragon and Environmental Sciences/WSU. Researcher/CNPq. Coordinator (2016-2018) and Adjunct Coordinator (2012-2016) in Environmental Sciences Area from CAPES. Member of the Scientific Technical Council (extended)/Capes between 2016 - 2018. Member of Advisory Committee of Urban and Regional Planning from the Foundation for Research Support of Paraná (F. Araucaria). Internships with two seniors’ researchers, Manfred Max-Neef (Alternative Nobel Prize) and Ignacy Sachs (one of the creators of Eco-Development), and internship in the Cooperative Complex of Mondragón, Basco Country, global paradigmatic example of cooperative, 2009. Fulbright Foundation Scholar (USA), 2015, visiting professor at the Brazilian Center for Contemporary Studies (CRBC) at the School of Higher Studies in Social Sciences (EHESS) in Paris, 1996, and the Center for Environmental Studies at the Austral University of Chile (UACh), 2005. He is a professor of the Graduate Program in Regional Development/FURB, Environmental Manager/UP and Environment and Development/UFPR. He is visiting researcher of Interpersonal Process Lab/Washington State University (WSU) and visitor professor of the Graduate Program in the Human Scale Development and Ecological Economics/UACH. He coordinates the Center of Eco-socioeconomics and, in partnership, the Center for Public Policies. Pioneer in theoretical and empirical research on the topic Eco-socio-economics, comprising Planning and Organizational Management for Sustainable Territorial Development, and Community-based Political and Socio-productive Arrangements, and Community-Based Tourism, Solidarity and Sustainable Development in Latin America. He published 111 papers in journals and 180 studies in national and international scientific congresses, as well as 10 books and 58 chapters. Email: carlos.cioce@gmail.com

SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Instituto Superior de Administração e Economia do Mercosul (ISAE), Curitiba, PR, Brasil. Instituto Superior de Administração e Economia do MercosulBrasilCuritiba, PR, BrasilInstituto Superior de Administração e Economia do Mercosul (ISAE), Curitiba, PR, Brasil.

Universidade Federal do Mato Grosso (UFMT), Cuiabá, MT, Brasil. Universidade Federal do Mato GrossoBrasilCuiabá, MT, BrasilUniversidade Federal do Mato Grosso (UFMT), Cuiabá, MT, Brasil.

Fundação Universidade Regional de Blumenau (FURB), Blumenau, SC, Brasil. Fundação Universidade Regional de BlumenauBrazilBlumenau, SC, BrazilFundação Universidade Regional de Blumenau (FURB), Blumenau, SC, Brasil.

Tablas

Tablas (2)

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Table 1 Estimates of global impacts of temperature rise

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Table 2 Impacts, consequences, and challenges to the tourism industry in the face of climate change

table_chartTable 1 Estimates of global impacts of temperature rise

SECTORS	IMPACTS AT 2 °C	IMPACTS AT 3 °C
Agriculture Food	A decline in crop production in tropical regions (50% of cereals, 25% of corn, and 10% of soybeans). Increased inequalities and conflicts over food and water shortages. Central-West and Northeast Brazil will suffer a drop in agricultural production.	600 million additional people, in relation to the 2 °C scenario, may be living at risk of starvation. Rising world food prices. Northeast Brazil will be one of the most affected regions in the world. High-latitude agricultural production is likely to increase.
Water	Potential 20-30% decrease in water availability in some regions, such as southern Africa and the Mediterranean. From 600 million to 3 billion people threatened by water shortages.	1 to 4 billion people will suffer from water shortages. Possible migrations caused by drought causing socio-economic and political instability. The Caatinga biome will become more arid and the Amazon will suffer intense periods of drought.
Human Health	From 90 to 200 million people will be at risk of contracting malaria or other diseases transmitted by insects or water. High rates of diarrhea and malnutrition in low-income countries.	More than 300 million people will run the risk of being infected by malaria and 5 to 6 million by dengue fever.
Ecosystem Biodiversity	15 to 40% of species facing the danger of extinction. Loss of 95% of most corals, impacts on commercial and subsistence fisheries. Risk of permanent change from carbon sinks to carbon sources (Amazon). A large portion of the Tundra and half of the boreal forests may disappear.	Beginning of the collapse of the Amazon rainforest: losses of more than 10% of fish species; of 22% of wetlands in the coasts. 50% of endangered species, including 25 to 60% of mammals, 30 to 40% of birds and 15 to 70% of butterflies in southern Africa. 88% risk of transformation from forests to non-forest systems. Possible loss and extinction of ice-dependent species.
Glaciers	60% loss of Arctic ice during the summer. Complete and irreversible melting of Greenland. A decrease of 25% or more of oceanic ice.	Total loss of oceanic ice during the summer in the Arctic. Complete loss of the ice sheet of Greenland and Antarctic glaciers with heating of 3 °C for several centuries.
Seas and oceans	Sea level rise and coastal flooding could put at risk 25 to 50 million people. High costs of recovery.	Rising sea levels, coastal flooding and water stress will put at risk 180 million people. Hundreds of thousands will have to migrate.
Extreme weather events	Increase in the frequency and intensity of floods, droughts, storms, heat waves, tropical cyclones and other extreme events. The Southern and Southeastern parts of Brazil are more vulnerable to these events.	Increase in the frequency and intensity of fires and forest fires, droughts, storms, and heat waves. Socio-economic losses mainly to the world's poorest countries and regions.
Tourism	Discomfort due to the high temperature, causing a decrease in the demand in many tourist destinations of sun and beach. New destinations may arise mainly in Conservation Units, implying overcrowding in these areas and ecological impacts.	Maximum reductions in seasons (spring and summer) in relation to humidity, and increase of insolation causing losses for certain types of tourism. Reduction of tourist areas with detriment to the winter tourism sector (snow). Declining demand meaning an economic loss to mountain (snow melting) and coastal (sea rise, and bleaching and mortality of coral reefs) destinations.

Source: Stern (2006); IPCC (2013); PBMC (2014); UNWTO (2007); Moreno (2010); Grimm et al. (2013)

table_chartTable 2 Impacts, consequences, and challenges to the tourism industry in the face of climate change

FACTORS	IMPACTS	CONSEQUENCES	CHALLENGES
Temperature increase (supply and demand)	- Reduction of the appropriate period of sun exposure - Thermal stress - Increase in the incidence of skin cancer	- Redirection of demand to other potential destinations, such as conservation units - Adaptation of the travel period - Fragmentation of the holiday period with reduction in stay - Poor quality of experience	- Promote a low-carbon activity - Offer destinations of nature all year round - Promote actions and run campaigns on sun protection issues
Extreme Events (geographical space, demand, supply, and agents)	-Destruction of tourism infrastructure -Road blockades - Interruption of media services -Changes in the hydrologic cycle	- Real estate speculation; - Contamination and spread of diseases - Lack of drinking water - High cost of recovery - Low capacity for emergency care (rescue, evacuation, medical services) - Unavailability of emergency accommodation, counseling and assistance to victims - Increase in the price of trips - Insecurity - Poor quality of experience - Consumer distrust	- Foster new, more sustainable tourist destinations - Promote actions and run campaigns informing about the protection and rational use of resources - New investments, technologies and marketing strategies - Create plans and actions and develop strategies to deal with the consequences of extreme events - Implement warning measures that anticipate occurrences of extreme events and measures to mitigate the problem and protect the local population and the tourist
Sea-level rise (geographical space, supply, and agents)	- Degradation of beaches - Bleaching of corals - Coastal erosion - Destruction of mangroves - Destruction of the waterfront infrastructure	- Decrease of sand space for leisure - Impacts on the freshwater reserve - High cost of the waterfront restoration	- Promote mitigation and adaptation actions and initiatives - Plan and order the use and territorial occupation of the seaside - Implementation of coastal engineering works

Source:Grimm (2016), based on the experts’ contribution

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