Study of the cellular phone diffusion in Brazil: a system dynamics approach

Abstract

This work presents a model to study the diffusion of the mobile cell phone technology. Based on the Frank Bass' theory of Products Diffusion (1969), and on the System Dynamics methodology, the model was applied to the Brazilian case. As a result, it was possible to reproduce, with a good degree of adherence, the accumulated curves of cellular adopted in Brazil (post-paid, pre-paid and total), as so the annual sales curve. The projected results indicates a saturation of cell phones diffusion in Brazil around the year 2013, when the market will supposed to reach a total of approximately 150 millions of devices.

Modeling; simulation; system dynamics; cell phone technology