Modelagem matemática do efeito chicote em ambientes com demanda e lead time estocásticos

Abstract

The increase in demand variability as information flows from customers to manufacturers in a supply chain is known as the Bullwhip Effect (BE). Modeling this phenomenon is key in measuring its intensity, aiming at reducing its negative impact on both service and inventory levels in supply chains. This paper proposes a new, more precise mathematical model for quantifying the BE in systems with stochastic demand and lead time. The new model takes into account the lead time variability, an element not present in the BE literature. In addition, the model allows a more precise assessment of the role that the demand's coefficient of variation plays when quantifying the BE. The use of the proposed model enables an improved management of the supply chain by attenuating the propagation of the BE.

bullwhip effect; stochastic modeling; supply chain