Support for democracy and electoral distrust: evidence from Brazil (2006–2022)

Free and fair elections, along with mechanisms that ensure electoral integrity, are essential to democracy. Despite a lack of evidence of failures in the Brazilian electronic voting system, public distrust in voting machines and vote counting has grown in recent years. Current explanations emphasise support for defeated candidates, informational cues from political elites and motivated partisan reasoning. Using survey data from 2006, 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022, we show the limitations of these explanations. Although Jair Bolsonaro amplified the rhetoric of distrust which resonated among his supporters, we argue that it primarily intensifies a more profound factor: support for democracy. Our findings indicate that normative support for the regime is a central determinant of attitudes toward electoral integrity, beyond short-term political factors.

Keywords
distrust at the polls; Bolsonarism; electoral integrity; electronic voting machines; democratic disaffection