Open-access Teacher expectations and math proficiency: evidence from SAEB 2017 in public schools*1

High school remains one of the main bottlenecks in the Brazilian educational system, especially for students from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. Student proficiency, used as a proxy for educational quality, is associated with different school factors, among which teacher expectations stand out. This study analyzes the relationship between teacher expectations and the mathematics performance of 11th-grade students in Brazilian public schools, using microdata from the 2017 Basic Education Assessment System (Sistema de Avaliação da Educação Básica - SAEB). For this purpose, a three-level multilevel model (students, classes, and schools) was estimated, including a set of control variables related to the school and family context. The results indicate that very high teacher expectations are positively associated with student performance in mathematics, even after controlling for socioeconomic characteristics and school processes. This result highlights the importance of teacher expectations as one of the mechanisms capable of mitigating educational inequalities and contributing to school effectiveness. In addition, the study shows that the impact of expectations is not limited to motivational aspects, but translates into measurable learning gains, which broadens the understanding of the school factors that influence educational quality. Thus, the results provide support for policies aimed at teacher training and capacity building, highlighting the relevance of teacher expectations for building a more equitable and promising school environment.

Keywords:
Teacher expectations; Math proficiency; Multilevel model; High school

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