A Despesa Primária do Governo Central: estimativas e determinantes no período 1986-2016

Pires, Manoel; Borges, Bráulio

doi:10.1590/0101-41614921mpb

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Artigo de Pesquisa • Estud. Econ. 49 (2) • Apr-Jun 2019 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-41614921mpb linkcopiar

A Despesa Primária do Governo Central: estimativas e determinantes no período 1986-2016^♦

Autoria SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

O crescimento das despesas primárias do Governo Central durante o processo de democratização é um fato normalmente atribuído à Constituição Federal de 1988. Este artigo apresenta novas estimativas para a despesa primária desde 1986 e decompõe seu crescimento considerando fatores relacionados ou não à Constituição. Os resultados mostram que considerando apenas os efeitos Constitucionais, a despesa primária teria se mantido estabilizada no período.

Palavras-Chave
Despesas primárias; Constituição Federal; Seguridade Social

	STN		BCB		Giambiagi e Além
	Pessoal	Custeio*	Pessoal	Custeio*	Pessoal	Custeio*
1990	5,0%	2,9%	5,0%	2,9%	ND	ND
1991	3,4%	3,5%	3,4%	3,5%	ND	ND
1992	3,6%	2,5%	3,6%	2,5%	ND	ND
1993	4,2%	4,0%	4,2%	4,0%	ND	ND
1994	ND	ND	5,1%	3,5%	5,1%	4,0%
1995	5,0%	3,0%	5,1%	3,0%	5,1%	3,8%

	Consolidação	STN	Diferença
1986	12.7%	NA	NA
1987	13.0%	NA	NA
1988	12.7%	NA	NA
1989	11.9%	NA	NA
1990	11.5%	NA	NA
1991	10.7%	NA	NA
1992	10.6%	NA	NA
1993	13.5%	NA	NA
1994	14.0%	NA	NA
1995	13.1%	NA	NA
1996	13.2%	NA	NA
1997	14.0%	14.0%	0.0%
1998	14.8%	14.8%	0.0%
1999	14.6%	14.6%	0.0%
2000	14.8%	14.8%	0.0%
2001	15.6%	15.6%	0.0%
2002	15.7%	15.9%	-0.1%
2003	15.0%	15.1%	-0.1%
2004	15.5%	15.6%	-0.1%
2005	16.2%	16.4%	-0.2%
2006	16.6%	16.8%	-0.1%
2007	16.8%	16.9%	-0.1%
2008	16.1%	16.2%	0.0%
2009	17.4%	17.4%	0.0%
2010	17.1%	18.2%	-1.1%
2011	16.7%	16.8%	0.0%
2012	16.9%	16.9%	0.0%
2013	17.4%	17.3%	0.0%
2014	17.9%	18.1%	-0.2%
2015	17.9%	19.4%	-1.6%
2016	19.5%	20.0%	-0.5%

	Pessoal	Previdência	RMV, LOAS, BPC e Seguro D.	Subsídios	Custeio	Total
1991/1986	0.66	-0.22	0.23	-1.10	-2.34	-2.78
1996/1991	1.61	1.58	0.11	0.03	-0.11	3.23
2001/1996	-0.05	0.90	0.05	0.12	1.09	2.11
2006/2001	-0.20	1.39	0.23	0.06	0.14	1.62
2011/2006	-0.24	-0.37	0.23	-0.13	0.83	0.32
2016/2011	-0.45	0.90	0.12	0.15	0.10	0.82

	Pessoal e Encargos (1)	Benefícios Previdenciários (2)	RMV LOAS e EPU (3)	Seguro Desemprego (4)	Custeio e Investimento (5=5.1+5.2)	Custeio (5.1)	Investimento (5.2)	Subsídios (6)	Total (1+2+3+4+5+6)
1986	2.5%	3.3%	0.32%	0.01%	5.3%	nd	nd	1.2%	12.7%
1987	3.5%	2.5%	0.29%	0.06%	4.6%	nd	nd	2.0%	13.0%
1988	4.3%	2.5%	0.29%	0.07%	4.7%	nd	nd	0.8%	12.7%
1989	4.4%	2.9%	0.28%	0.11%	3.7%	nd	nd	0.6%	11.9%
1990	5.0%	3.3%	0.27%	0.31%	2.6%	nd	nd	0.1%	11.5%
1991	3.4%	3.4%	0.29%	0.32%	3.2%	nd	nd	0.1%	10.7%
1992	3.6%	4.2%	0.27%	0.37%	2.1%	nd	nd	0.0%	10.6%
1993	4.2%	5.0%	0.20%	0.33%	3.7%	nd	nd	0.1%	13.5%
1994	5.1%	4.8%	0.38%	0.44%	3.1%	nd	nd	0.1%	14.0%
1995	5.1%	4.6%	0.31%	0.41%	2.6%	2.0%	0.6%	0.1%	13.1%
1996	4.8%	4.7%	0.29%	0.39%	2.9%	2.3%	0.6%	0.1%	13.2%
1997	4.2%	5.0%	0.33%	0.36%	3.9%	3.2%	0.7%	0.2%	14.0%
1998	4.5%	5.4%	0.34%	0.40%	4.1%	3.2%	0.9%	0.2%	14.8%
1999	4.4%	5.4%	0.33%	0.35%	3.9%	3.4%	0.5%	0.2%	14.6%
2000	4.5%	5.5%	0.35%	0.34%	3.8%	3.1%	0.7%	0.2%	14.8%
2001	4.8%	5.7%	0.37%	0.37%	4.1%	3.3%	0.8%	0.3%	15.6%
2002	4.8%	5.9%	0.38%	0.38%	4.1%	3.3%	0.8%	0.1%	15.7%
2003	4.5%	6.2%	0.39%	0.39%	3.3%	3.0%	0.3%	0.3%	15.0%
2004	4.3%	6.4%	0.42%	0.36%	3.8%	3.3%	0.5%	0.2%	15.5%
2005	4.3%	6.7%	0.46%	0.40%	3.9%	3.4%	0.5%	0.4%	16.2%
2006	4.4%	6.9%	0.51%	0.43%	4.1%	3.4%	0.6%	0.3%	16.6%
2007	4.3%	6.8%	0.55%	0.46%	4.4%	3.7%	0.7%	0.3%	16.8%
2008	4.3%	6.4%	0.55%	0.45%	4.3%	3.5%	0.8%	0.1%	16.1%
2009	4.6%	6.7%	0.60%	0.59%	4.7%	3.7%	1.0%	0.1%	17.4%
2010	4.3%	6.6%	0.61%	0.53%	4.9%	3.7%	1.2%	0.2%	17.1%
2011	4.1%	6.4%	0.61%	0.54%	4.8%	3.9%	1.0%	0.2%	16.7%
2012	3.9%	6.6%	0.64%	0.56%	5.0%	4.0%	1.0%	0.2%	16.9%
2013	3.8%	6.7%	0.66%	0.60%	5.3%	4.4%	0.9%	0.2%	17.4%
2014	3.8%	6.8%	0.69%	0.61%	5.7%	4.7%	1.0%	0.3%	17.9%
2015	4.0%	7.3%	0.73%	0.64%	4.8%	4.1%	0.7%	0.5%	17.9%
2016	4.1%	8.1%	0.81%	0.60%	5.5%	4.7%	0.8%	0.4%	19.5%

	Pessoal e Encargos	Benefícios Previdenciários	RMV LOAS e EPU	Seguro Desemprego	Custeio e Investimento	Custeio (5.1)	investimento (5.2)	Subsídios	Total
1986	2.5%	3.3%	0.32%	0.01%	5.3%	nd	nd	1.2%	12.7%
1987	3.5%	2.5%	0.29%	0.06%	4.6%	nd	nd	2.0%	12.9%
1988	4.1%	2.4%	0.28%	0.06%	4.6%	nd	nd	0.8%	12.2%
1989	4.2%	2.8%	0.27%	0.11%	3.6%	nd	nd	0.6%	11.6%
1990	4.7%	3.0%	0.25%	0.29%	2.4%	nd	nd	0.1%	10.7%
1991	3.1%	3.1%	0.27%	0.29%	3.0%	nd	nd	0.1%	9.9%
1992	3.3%	3.8%	0.24%	0.34%	1.9%	nd	nd	0.0%	9.6%
1993	3.9%	4.7%	0.19%	0.31%	3.4%	nd	nd	0.1%	12.6%
1994	5.0%	4.7%	0.37%	0.43%	3.0%	nd	nd	0.1%	13.7%
1995	5.1%	4.6%	0.31%	0.41%	2.6%	2.0%	0.6%	0.1%	13.1%
1996	4.8%	4.7%	0.29%	0.38%	2.9%	2.3%	0.6%	0.1%	13.2%
1997	4.2%	4.9%	0.32%	0.36%	3.9%	3.2%	0.7%	0.2%	13.9%
1998	4.3%	5.2%	0.34%	0.39%	4.0%	3.1%	0.9%	0.2%	14.5%
1999	4.3%	5.2%	0.32%	0.34%	3.8%	3.3%	0.5%	0.2%	14.0%
2000	4.5%	5.4%	0.34%	0.33%	3.8%	3.1%	0.7%	0.2%	14.5%
2001	4.7%	5.6%	0.36%	0.36%	4.0%	3.2%	0.8%	0.3%	15.3%
2002	4.7%	5.8%	0.38%	0.37%	4.0%	3.2%	0.8%	0.1%	15.5%
2003	4.4%	6.1%	0.39%	0.38%	3.2%	2.9%	0.3%	0.3%	14.7%
2004	4.4%	6.5%	0.42%	0.36%	3.8%	3.3%	0.5%	0.2%	15.7%
2005	4.3%	6.8%	0.47%	0.41%	3.9%	3.4%	0.5%	0.4%	16.4%
2006	4.5%	7.0%	0.52%	0.43%	4.1%	3.5%	0.6%	0.3%	16.9%
2007	4.5%	7.1%	0.57%	0.48%	4.5%	3.8%	0.7%	0.3%	17.4%
2008	4.4%	6.7%	0.57%	0.47%	4.5%	3.6%	0.8%	0.1%	16.7%
2009	4.6%	6.7%	0.59%	0.58%	4.7%	3.7%	1.0%	0.1%	17.2%
2010	4.4%	6.7%	0.62%	0.55%	5.0%	3.8%	1.1%	0.2%	17.6%
2011	4.3%	6.6%	0.62%	0.56%	5.0%	4.0%	1.0%	0.2%	17.2%
2012	4.0%	6.7%	0.65%	0.57%	5.1%	4.1%	1.0%	0.2%	17.2%
2013	3.9%	6.9%	0.68%	0.62%	5.4%	4.6%	0.9%	0.3%	17.8%
2014	3.9%	6.9%	0.70%	0.62%	5.7%	4.8%	1.0%	0.3%	18.1%
2015	3.8%	7.0%	0.71%	0.62%	4.6%	3.9%	0.6%	0.5%	17.2%
2016	3.8%	7.5%	0.75%	0.56%	5.1%	4.3%	0.8%	0.3%	18.0%

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Departamento de Economia; Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária da Universidade de São Paulo (FEA-USP) Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, 908 - FEA 01 - Cid. Universitária, CEP: 05508-010, Tel.: (55 11) 3091-5803/5947 - São Paulo - SP - Brazil
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A Despesa Primária do Governo Central: estimativas e determinantes no período 1986-2016♦

A Despesa Primária do Governo Central: estimativas e determinantes no período 1986-2016^♦