Política industrial para economias com desindustrialização prematura no século XXI: integrando objetivos econômicos, sociais e ambientais para o Brasil

Nassif, André; Morceiro, Paulo César

doi:10.1590/1982-3533.2026v35n2.287625

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Sumário

Original Article • Economia e Sociedade 35 (2) • 2026 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1982-3533.2026v35n2.287625 linkcopiar

Política industrial para economias com desindustrialização prematura no século XXI: integrando objetivos econômicos, sociais e ambientais para o Brasil

Autoria SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Nem todos os países têm sido igualmente afetados pela desindustrialização, seja medida pela participação do valor agregado industrial no PIB, seja pela participação do emprego industrial no emprego total. Estudos recentes mostram que, em nível subsetorial, os segmentos industriais mais inovadores não enfrentam desindustrialização. Embora o setor manufatureiro seja o motor do crescimento econômico e do avanço da produtividade, os subsetores industriais detêm diferentes potenciais para gerar e difundir progresso técnico no sistema econômico. Com base na literatura teórica e em evidências empíricas, sugerimos, para o Brasil, uma política industrial integrada e orientada pelas seguintes “missões” prioritárias: reindustrialização; promoção da inovação; geração de empregos formais; redução da desigualdade social; engajamento na economia digital; e substituição de tecnologias com elevada emissão de dióxido de carbono (CO₂) por outras com baixo CO₂. A proposta pode ser adaptada por outros países em desenvolvimento que vêm enfrentando desindustrialização prematura e estagnação nas últimas décadas.

Palavras-chave:
Desindustrialização prematura; Desenvolvimento econômico; Política industrial; Países em desenvolvimento; Brasil.

	Share of GDP at 2020’s constant prices						Variation in p.p.
	1970	1980	1990	2000	2010	2020	1980-2020
Lower tech intensity	13.11	11.93	10.08	9.39	8.04	6.67	-5.26
Food, beverages, and tobacco	3.51	2.87	2.95	3.18	2.84	2.56	-0.31
Textiles	1.12	0.84	0.62	0.41	0.32	0.19	-0.65
Wearing apparel, leather, and footwear	3.39	2.67	1.87	1.33	0.85	0.57	-2.10
Furniture, wood, and other manufacturing	1.02	1.10	0.86	0.87	0.71	0.62	-0.48
Paper and printing	0.73	0.62	0.64	0.69	0.67	0.59	-0.03
Non-metallic minerals	0.74	0.83	0.64	0.61	0.56	0.46	-0.37
Basic metals and fabricated metals	1.88	2.00	1.65	1.57	1.48	1.19	-0.81
Rubber and plastics	0.72	1.00	0.85	0.72	0.60	0.49	-0.50
Higher tech intensity	7.79	9.61	7.97	7.10	7.10	5.66	-3.95
Chemicals and refined petroleum	3.43	4.09	3.95	3.27	2.74	2.19	-1.90
Pharmaceuticals	0.97	0.76	0.81	0.76	0.76	0.81	0.05
Machinery and equipment	1.69	2.34	1.48	1.42	1.47	1.15	-1.19
Electrical equipment and computers	0.60	0.88	0.79	0.62	0.64	0.77	-0.11
Motor vehicles and other transport equipment	1.10	1.54	0.94	1.03	1.49	0.74	-0.80
Manufacturing sector	20.91	21.54	18.05	16.49	15.14	12.34	-9.21

	1970-80	1980-90	1990-00	2000-10	2010-20	1980-2020
Lower tech intensity	7.68	-0.14	1.66	1.94	-1.59	0.46
Food, beverages, and tobacco	6.24	1.70	2.86	2.39	-0.75	1.54
Textiles	5.34	-1.63	-2.00	1.11	-4.75	-1.84
Wearing apparel, leather, and footwear	5.87	-2.12	-1.32	-0.96	-3.68	-2.02
Furniture, wood, and other manufacturing	9.15	-1.00	2.28	1.49	-1.16	0.39
Paper and printing	6.61	1.82	2.82	3.22	-0.95	1.71
Non-metallic minerals	9.63	-1.25	1.73	2.61	-1.71	0.33
Basic metals and fabricated metals	9.09	-0.52	1.60	2.95	-1.91	0.51
Rubber and plastics	12.03	-0.18	0.46	1.62	-1.65	0.06
Higher tech intensity	11.01	-0.33	1.22	3.53	-1.98	0.59
Chemicals and refined petroleum	10.19	1.54	0.56	0.30	0.76	0.79
Pharmaceuticals	5.63	2.49	1.86	3.58	0.83	2.19
Machinery and equipment	11.81	-2.65	2.06	3.87	-2.18	0.23
Electrical equipment and computers	12.55	0.72	0.15	3.86	2.09	1.70
Motor vehicles and other transport equipment	12.01	-3.02	3.37	7.44	-6.45	0.19
Manufacturing sector	8.96	-0.21	1.51	2.70	-1.72	0.56
Total economy	8.63	1.57	2.43	3.58	0.32	1.97

	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020
Primary Goods (Agriculture and Mining)	17.6	13.9	14.5	18.6	34.4	33.8	45.1
Manufacturing	81.1	84.7	83.4	79.4	63.4	64.3	54.6
Resource-based	21.2	24.0	18.4	21.0	21.2	20.9	20.7
Labour-intensive	10.3	10.0	9.1	6.7	4.4	4.5	2.5
Scale Intensive	32.0	31.5	29.8	29.8	21.1	20.9	19.4
Specialized Suppliers	8.8	9.8	14.0	11.6	8.5	9.9	5.5
Science-Based	8.9	9.4	12.0	10.4	8.3	8.0	6.4
Not classified	1.3	1.4	2.1	2.0	2.2	1.9	0.3
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020
Primary Goods (Agriculture and Mining)	30.3	11.8	11.8	17.0	12.1	11.8	7.0
Manufacturing	69.1	87.4	87.8	82.7	87.6	87.9	91.8
Resource-based	7.4	8.3	3.8	2.8	3.1	3.6	4.2
Labour-intensive	4.2	6.4	4.4	4.4	5.7	7.1	6.3
Scale Intensive	12.7	25.9	24.1	20.7	28.0	23.3	20.6
Specialized Suppliers	17.4	17.4	19.0	17.6	19.3	19.7	21.0
Science-Based	27.4	29.4	36.4	37.0	31.5	34.2	39.7
Not classified	0.6	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.3	1.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Missions	Motivation
1.Reindustrialization and industrial revitalization	Brazil prematurely deindustrialized in a very intense way in the last 40 years. In this period, the growth rate has been stagnant. Furthermore, the populous and backward regions have never reached a moderate degree of industrialization. Nevertheless, these regions have the potential to advance in the industrialization of sub-sectors that do not compete with the South-Southeast, where the labor cost is relatively expensive. SDG 9 aims to promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization. Revitalizing manufacturing through innovation, clean technologies, and integration with new I.T. services, in addition to industrializing backward areas, can unlock the country’s economic growth.
2. Innovation promotion, technical progress, and creation of dynamic comparative advantages	Scale intensive, specialized suppliers and science-based manufacturing sub-sectors lose share in Brazil’s productive structure and export basket, even though they are the most innovative and dynamic of capitalist economies. Brazil patents and innovates little, despite having all the coordinated National Innovation System (NIS) actors. Innovation indicators have been stagnant since the early 2000s when the Innovation Surveys systematically measured them ^{(^*)}.SDG 9 aims to foster innovation. Innovation diffuses technical progress, sustains productivity growth in dynamic terms, and drives the share of employment (for the sub-sector of origin and the sub-sectors benefiting from adoption/diffusion).
3. Boost employment and its formalization and reduce social and regional inequalities	Brazil has a high unemployment rate of 11.1%. Only half of the country’s jobs are formal. The informality degree is even more significant in the most backward regions. SDG 8 aims at full and productive employment and decent work for all, and SDG 10 seeks to reduce income inequality within and among regions.
4. Increase investment in infrastructure	This kind of investment generates a high long-term social return. The country’s level of infrastructure investments has been low in the last 25 years, and in the previous three years, it has been below the depreciation rate. Brazil has a shortage in several areas; for example, 16% of the population does not have access to treated water, 47% does not have access to a sewage system ^{(^**)}, and the rail transport network per km² is low for a continental country. These percentages are higher in lagging regions. SDG 9 also includes building resilient infrastructure, and SDG 6 aims to ensure the availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.
5. Moving forward in the digital economy	A new industrial revolution is underway by combining several technologies of the so-called Industry 4.0. New digital technologies have the potential to revitalize almost all manufacturing sub-sectors, as Andreoni (2018) showed. In addition, information services technologies are increasingly contributing to expanding the technological frontier, and the country that strengthens them can take advantage of the opportunities opening up.
6. Take action to make the economy greener and sustainable	There is a solid global trend to make the economy green and sustainable, with relevant implications for international manufacturing competitiveness through trade agreements and pressure from societies for carbon-neutral production processes and more efficient products. New competitive parameters are emerging, such as the repairability index to French products like the energy efficiency label required in several countries. Goals 12, 13, and 15 of the SDGs are directly related to decarbonization, reduction in CO₂ emissions, protecting forests, and climate change.

Classification	Industry	Code ISIC 4
Primary goods	Agriculture, forestry and fishing	01-03
Primary goods	Mining and quarrying	05-09
Resource-based Manufacturing	Food products, beverages and tobacco	10-12
Resource-based Manufacturing	Wood and products of wood and cork, except furniture	16
Labour-intensive manufacturing	Textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products	13-15
	Fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment	25
	Furniture, other manufacturing	31-32
	Repair and installation of machinery and equipment	33
Scale intensive manufacturing	Paper and printing	17-18
	Coke and refined petroleum products	19
	Rubber and plastics products	22
	Other non-metallic mineral products	23
	Basic metals	24
	Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers	29
Specialized suppliers manufacturing	Electrical equipment	27
	Machinery and equipment n.e.c.	28
	Other transport equipment	30
Science-based manufacturing	Chemicals and chemical products	20
	Basic pharmaceutical products and pharma preparations	21
	Computer, electronic and optical products	26
Construction and energy infrastructure	Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply	35
	Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities	36-39
	Construction	41-43
Low and medium-skilled services	Wholesale and retail trade	45-47
	Transportation and storage	49-53
	Accommodation and food service activities	55-56
	Real estate activities	68
	Administrative and support service activities, except for rental and leasing activities	78-82
	Arts, entertainment and recreation	91-93
	Other service activities	94-96
	Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel	97
High-skilled services	Information and communication	58-63
	Financial and insurance activities	64-66
	Professional, scientific and technical activities	69-75
	Rental and leasing activities	77
	Public administration and defence; compulsory social security	84
	Education	85
	Human health and social work activities	86-88

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